Sunday, June 26, 2016

Do not fear of the Big Bad News


26th June 2016

 
Dear Fellow Investor,

 

Below is a letter from a friend who is a Canadian and former Englishman:

 

Hello Bill,

The English have risen up against the Establishment, and the will of the people will be implemented.

Now, instead of looking inward at a bunch of socialists, England has the option of forging new trade relationships with the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand,   and India. This is the Anglosphere, a group of countries with a far bigger GDP than any other trade group.

Also trade will be initiated with China, Russia, Iran, Malaysia, Singapore and growing Asian countries.

Best,

Roger

This can only be positive for the UK economy, the pound and the UK stock market going forward. Money and trade will flow to business focused Asian economies from the UK rather than being controlled by the dictatorial jack boot of the unelected socialist/ fascist European Union.


As a metaphor imagine that we were a colony of Indonesia and all political and monetary decisions were made by the Indonesian central bank and government and that Malaysia had no voice.  Not only that but that we would have to pay Indonesia a 4 Billion USD tribute every month.  That is  about how much money the UK pays the  EU every month to finance their lavish, wasteful  schemes .


Instead of helping bail out failed economies such as Greece and economic basket cases such as Italy, Spain and Portugal, the UK will have more money to raise the economic standards of their own people.  The EU is proposing to form an EU army to counter the Russians.  How much would that cost and who would pay ?


According to the Daily Mail, over 90 % of English servicemen voted to leave the EU as they want no part of this bizarre EU  army proposal.   The purpose of the EU Army is to poke the Russian bear.  Hitler and Napoleon learned the hard way what happens when foreign armies invade Russia.


The 90 million  Turks will never get a free pass to live and work in the UK as well as other economic basket case East European countries who are waiting to join the EU as PM Cameron and his corrupt cronies were planning.


In the short term do not fear the Big Bad News:

In the turbulent world of investing, bad news is often actually good news and good news is actually bad news. Nowhere is that more true than in value investing. In fact that is the very definition of value investing.


As value investors we want to buy stocks at the cheapest price.  We can, because the lower we pay the greater will be our long term return. Of course the price we pay has to be cheap relative to their intrinsic value.


Apple stock (AAPL) is an example of a good value buy at current price. When you take out the cash per share off the balance sheet their PE is only 7.


The UK pound is also a good value investment for those with children in the UK or for those who just want to sit on pounds for a capital gain or have a stock of pounds for a UK holiday. Maybank Bhd offers interest bearing UK currency accounts for this purpose.  
 

The Chinese and Malaysian stock markets had only minor losses Friday. Malaysia has only a less that 1 % exposure to the UK in export terms.  With the UK out of the EU this exports should increase over time and benefit Malaysian exporters.


I would be more concerned if there was a major bank collapse such as Lehman Brothers in 2008, or a currency crisis such is in 1998.  These were monetary crises and required central bank intervention. The current panic is political and will be easier to solve.  What does magnify the volatility is the constant media fear mongering and herd behaviour of the investment crowd.


If you focus on value investing do not be overly worried or concerned.  


Invest well and grow your wealth,

Bill
 
 




The crow is a powerful and cagey bird. It survives by its hunting skills and tough character.  It knows how to avoid danger. Observing the behavior of crows can make you a better investor and trader.  


Sunday, June 19, 2016

A game of investing



19 June 2016

 

Deal Fellow Investor,

Where from here?

Yesterday well over 2300 investors attended The Phillip Capital Investment Conference at the Istana Hotel KL. The ball room was a full house and hungry investors came to discover opportunity. There were many.  

17 prominent speakers gave us their take on what to expect moving forward.

Charts were presented showing slowing growth worldwide, high debt to GDP in almost every country, interest rates worldwide approaching zero and even negative, and increasing deflation. Brixit was discussed and its effects on Malaysia.

Brixit should have little effect on Malaysia as the UK is not a major trading partner. If there is a Brixit that should hit the pound and it would be cheaper to buy a house in the UK or fund your children’s UK education. A few Malaysian property companies such as S P Setia would suffer as well as Genting and YTL Power. We hold none of these for clients.

The general mood of the speakers was caution.  Some recommended buying high dividend shares in established companies. With growth slowing we should focus on stable income to at least beat inflation. Reits were mentioned as well as high quality consumer companies.

One speaker mentioned that with the onslaught of negative news, increased foreign fund selling, gloom and doom and low participation by the retail crowd the market could turnaround if the news flow turns a bit positive. Another words wait for less bad but do not wait for all the news to turn positive as that would be too late.   

Mr Ang Kok Heng, CIO of Phillip Capital spoke about known unknowns or potential black swans that can devastate a portfolio.  He said we can never know all the details of a company and to protect ourselves we must diversify and look for deeply undervalued shares. Anything can happen at any time.

Another way to minimize risk in this atmosphere is buy deeply undervalued companies.

He shared some examples of 2 deeply undervalued companies driven to attractive valuations that offer relatively low risk. Both were trading at less than ½ of book value.  They are possible privatization candidates which could result in windfall profits.

He also mentioned that never in the history of the KLSE which opened for trading in 1973 has there ever been more than 2 down years. Currentlythe  KLSE has been down for 2 years so statistically since 2014 and 2015 were down years the odds favor that 2016 will be a recovery year.

Investing is a probability game and the best we can ever do is make sure the odds are in our favor before we risk our capital.

Invest well and grow your wealth,
Bill
 

This cartoon shows the problems of Europe and  most developed countries. The ship might sink because of massive debt, high taxes, burdensome regulation, but notice the lifeboat sailing to safety. In the life boat are high quality dividend shares, Reits and perhaps some gold and cash.   
 
 



 


Sunday, June 12, 2016

Last chance for registration to our Investment Conference. FOC for accountholder

12 June 2016

Dear Fellow Investor,

Divergence is one of the strongest investing signals and offers opportunity for large profits with less risk. There presently is a divergence between cash soybeans and the Malaysian Plantation Index. Soybean and soy oil  prices correlate with palm oil as  soy oil is a  product of soybeans and palm oil competes with soy oil.

Soybeans have reached a 5 year high while palm oil continues to congest.
Most of the time soy oil and palm oil move together.



The DBA which is an ETF traded on the NYSE  has a basket of all the major cash grains including wheat, corn, soybeans,  soy meal and soy oil.  It has risen to new highs while the Malaysian plantation index has been trending lower. 



Weekly DBA chart making new highs




Weekly KLSE plantation index consisting of the major Malaysian plantation companies. It  evidences consolidation. Consolidation occurs when  uncertainty, pessimism, gloom and fear   dominate the mood of the market .

What this means is that Crude Palm Oil prices are lagging behind all major world grain prices.  This is inconsistent and is a classic divergence. It shows quality Malaysian plantation companies are undervalued and offer opportunity for the medium term investor.

Most analysts are bearish on plantation companies so this is not a crowded trade. Look for evidence of smart money buying, line breaks on above average volume on the shares of the major players for entry. I VSA chart can get you in ahead of the crowd

The present gloom is based the drum beat of negative news on the possible Brixit, interest rate uncertainty, 1MBD, foreign fund selling but using common sense what do these issues have to do with crude palm oil- a basic necessity ?  

China/ India/ Europe etc continue to buy our CPO as they all face food deficits due to weather disasters, El Nino and now La Nina. Major buyers continue to feed the bad news into the market while they buy. As world grain prices climb, my forecast is for higher CPO prices and plantation shares. Divergence does not last forever.

Invest well and grow your wealth, Bill

PS Last chance for registration to our Investment Conference. Please email me and I will have our administrator register you. If you have an account with me it is FOC.


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Thursday, June 9, 2016

Phillip Capital 7th Annual Investment Conference just around the corner!


Dear Fellow Investors,
 
Last Saturday, I attended the Singapore Reit Expo and listented to an impressive  lineup of CEOs representing the biggest Singapore Reits.  My takeaway is that just as in Singapore liquidity may be eased and Malaysian interest rates may be lowered as announced in the Edge this morning.  
 
This  will boost the slowing property market. 
 
Quality Malaysian and Singapore Reits will benefit because the spread between money market rates and Reit dividends will widen.
 
On 18 June, Saturday will be the Phillip 7th Annual Investment Conference    to be held in Hotel Istana from 9 AM to 6 PM.
 
Among the quality speakers is Andrew Wong, CIO of Am Bank Investments. He is an expert on Reits and if you are interested in earning above average income via Reits I urge you to come and listen to him. 
 
I will be at the event and if you are interested in Singapore Reits please ask me.
 

Click on the below banner or email me if you wish to register. It is FOC to clients.
 
Invest well and grow your wealth
Bill
 
 
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Monday, June 6, 2016

Research in REVPAR

Dear Fellow Investor,

Dolly and I just returned from a 3 day trip to Singapore to attend the Singapore REIT Convention at the Sun Tech Convention Center.



Doggy 240 is a famous Orchard Road sculpture across the street from ION Shopping Mall. It is a massive bull dog made of bronze painted with bright colours. Orchard Road is famous for unusual sculptures as well as high end hotels and luxury shops.  The world famous master Salvador Dali has one of his bronze statues on display.


 
We were in Singapore 2 months ago and it seems business in the retail shops/ hotels and restaurants is picking up. Tourists and business people from China, Indonesia/ Hong Kong/ Thailand/ India  and   Malaysia are returning.  Village Hotel Albert Court where we stayed   is running at 90 % + occupancy  according to the manager.

We learned in the REIT convention that REVPAR (Revenue per available room is picking up in the Singapore hotels.)  Property prices appear to be stabilizing.  Occupancy in prime office Reits such as Kepple Reit and retail mall Reits such as Capital Land  are at 94- 98 % and they have rental reversion contracts in their leases. 

The CEO of Motley Fool, David Kuo  gave the keynote address as to why Singapore Reits should be in every investor’s portfolio as they provide above average income of between 5 and 6% to long term investors- much better than saving deposit rates of just more than 1 %.   

He said that if you think people will still shop, go to hospitals, conduct business 10 years from now you get the growth on top of the generous dividends. 

There is no growth with fixed deposits or savings accounts.   Using the rule of 72, David explained why the dividends alone will return your capital in about 12 years and with growth can do so in less than 7 years.  

Prominent Reit CEOs, including those from Sun Reit, Mapletree Logistics, QUE Hospitality Trust, Capital Land and Kepple Reit described their challenges and plans going forward. They were all open, frank and generous with their knowledge.

I was surprised at the number of attendees- well over 6000 was my rough estimate.  That shows the wealth and savings of Singaporeans. The CPF has over 35 billion SGD available for investing in Reits and as investors begin to realize the potential of quality Reits more money will flow into Singapore Reits. 

Singapore at 6 % average pays the highest average Reit yields in Asia. The US by the way is only 3 % .  The other benefit is the strength and stability of the Sing Dollar.

It looks like the US may delay interest rate increases for now as the worst job creation numbers in 6 years was reported last Friday by the US Labour Dept.  This will also give a boost to the Reits as they act like bonds as far as interest rates are concerned. In fact David said Reits are a hybrid dividend stock and bond and benefit from both income plus growth.

Gold shot up over USD 40 per ounce while the USD weakened. I will post a mid week report on the KLSE should conditions warrant.  MGS should benefit from this worse than horrible jobs report. Trumps poll numbers went up after the jobs release as Hillary is perceived to be more of same as far as weak Obama economic policy is concerned.

Invest well and grow your wealth,

Bill