Finding a winning horse.

27 January 2018

Dear Fellow Investors,

Finding a winning horse.

Professional horse gamblers make money by looking for an undervalued horse. This would be a horse that will go off at long odds and can reward gamblers with a large payoff.

The true odds are masked to the public. For example, a high quality horse will be run out of the money a few times to make it look bad. 

This will raise the odds each time the horse lost as the crowd of gamblers would not be interested to risk their money. When the crowd lost interest, the insiders would bring the undervalued horse home first at high odds and reward those in the know with a huge payoff.

Another insider tactic is to plant fake news in the Daily Racing Form which rates horses, bad news would be planted by insiders to trick the public.

Horse racing just like the stock market is dominated by syndicates, smart money, fake news and insider manipulation.   

How do we identify smart money ? In horse racing we watch the tote board. The tote board records the money flow into the betting pool. There are patterns of money flow that will tell you when smart money is betting on an undervalued horse  When this happens, we follow the smart money and jump in with a large bet.  

In stocks we follow  price and volume.(IVSA) Insiders can not hide price and volume as it is reported to the exchange in real time.

Skill in reading price and volume can be learned by practice  There are simple patterns which can put the odds in your favour.

For example, some unloved Malaysian banks have been congesting for the last few months. The news flow has been negative and the investment crowd lost interest.

One fine day 3 weeks ago, Hong Leong Bank suddenly broke the congestion on high volume and a wide range price bar.

This was a sign, that smart money knows something.

I bought for all our clients and the share went in the money. There was no drawdown Risk was below support which is small compared to the potential return.

The crowd was not interested but I was.

This method works in all markets and short term does not need to focus on currencies/ politics or interest rates which we have no control over.

When I operated this money flow horse system in the US, I was able to earn a reasonable living.  

Of course to enhance returns, I did extensive research to know the fundamentals including the blood lines of the horses, the track conditions, past racing results the jockey’s backgrounds, etc. That further puts the odds in your favour.  

Now the crowd is chasing hot upstream oil/ tech shares and they may go higher but the odds are against you. Be on guard

In the US markets including the S & P, Russell 2000 and Nasdec there are over 500 shares with PEs stretched to over 150  Some are large caps. These are crowd favorites hyped in the media and the stock brokers. 

Look to other shares in Japan, Malaysia Hong Kong and Singapore where value does exist to protect your self when the bubble bursts-

Invest well and grow your wealth,

Bill

Today’s critter is a golden eagle from Canada. It is huge bird which waits patiently and strikes swiftly when hunting.  It is a good metaphor for us as investors. Strike quickly when the opportunity comes.

“ The crypto currency bubble will not end well.”

20 January 2018

Dear Fellow Investors,

The bulls continue to charge:

From CNBC Friday.

Some of these fellows will get horned by the bulls.

I ask these fellows is it worth the thrill of showing you are brave  by outrunning a charging bull ?

It is like dealing in high flying penny stocks or even worse dealing in crypto currencies such as bitcoin.

As Warren Buffet remarked to Betty Quick last week on CNBC . “ The crypto currency bubble  will not end well.” The same goes for high flying stocks making new highs every day.

My first goal is to preserve client’s capital and earn a reasonable return. In 2017 we met our goal and outperformed our benchmarks: the KLSE and SGX.

We are on course to do the same in 2018.

Security by Obscurity

This is the same strategy we employed in 2017 and will employ in 2018.
In business as in nature, the ability to keep out of sight of predators is an advantage.

Who cares about coffee machine micro processors made by Uchi or cooking gas supplied by Gas Malaysia ? They are important but they occupy humble boring corporate niches. 

The same goes for Wellcal who make custom rubber hoses for the oil industry. These businesses are relatively small or boring, not experiencing hyper growth or offering  a technology revolution. I believe that this obscurity can offer a layer of protection from competitive disruption.

Hot fields such as electric cars, renewable energy, disease prevention, robotics attract too much attention like the charging bulls in our above illustration. There is nothing wrong with these technologies but they are like charging bulls as their shares  gain momentum and attract the investment crowd.

Our recent investments in Nidec are one step removed from the charging bulls  as they supply to the hot industries  Nidec is like the seller of shovels to the gold miners. A gold mine can easily go bust but there are always customers for shovels.

It was just announced that the US Government will shut down. At least business will not shut down so I would not be too concerned. 

We will continue our search for obscure companies with company visits, on the ground research and our industry contacts to put the odds in our favour moving forward

Invest well and grow your wealth
Bill

For bird lovers today’s critter is a striking seagull from Iceland  

Stretching For Growth

13 January 2018

Dear Fellow Investors,

The world equity rally continues. Will Malaysia follow? From 12 Dec 2017 the KLSE has rallied from 1740 to 1840 reached on 9 Jan 2018.

This in my opinion was a year end window dressing rally pushed by large asset managers   to improve the appearance of a portfolio to be presented to clients.  

Because most of the gains were made by large and highly liquid institutional shares such as Maybank, Tenaga, Maxis, some oil shares etc , I consider this to be as Mr Tong of the edge reported in this weeks stock market column to be “Portfolio Pumping”.

The shares we hold in our Malaysian portfolios did not go up much in this rally but in the preceding correction during October/ November 2017 they did not go down either.

This rally was inspired by the bullish upcoming election news flow by the media.

We purchased HL Bank for our clients to participate in this rally We made some profits but the selection was based on reasonable valuations, solid fundamentals and my anticipation of higher interest rates in the next quarter which will boost net interest margins.  

Since we bought on a break out of accumulation on high volume our risk is low compared to potential return. Our purchase was based on risk/ reward and backed by fundamentals rather than media hype.

If you are holding pumped up media hyped shares with weak balance sheets and shaky management this might be time to take some profit.

You might consider as a replacement  the rubber gloves sector.

The chart below shows increasing demand growth  which translates to profit growth. PEs are elevated but if earnings growth is higher , valuations are justified.

Stretching For Growth

According to data from MARGMA (Malaysia Rubber Gloves Manufacturer Association), demand for rubber gloves around the world has grown consistently over the long term, rising by nearly 6% per year from 103 billion pieces in 2005 to 190 billion pieces in 2016.

Source: MARGMA

Future growth is estimated to be between 6% and 8% per year, which is a reasonable estimate in our view given (1) the historical long run growth rate for the rubber glove market, (2) rubber gloves are an indispensable and consumable item used in the healthcare industry, and (3) a relatively low level of rubber glove consumption outside the US, Japan, and Europe. 

To the third point, the US, Japan, and Europe collectively account for 18% of the global population but 70% of global glove demand; there thus appears to be plenty of room for glove demand to grow in other countries.

The same message of portfolio pumping applies to Singapore/ Hong Kong and world markets as well. We need to be selective and invest base on earnings growth as well as valuation.

Invest well and grow your wealth
Bill

Today’s critters are some flamingos.

We saw quite a few of these on our recent trip to Langkawi.  There is also a good collection of them in Zoo Negara.

Factors sustain the equity rally

7 January 2018

Dear Fellow Investors,

Malaysia has joined the world emerging markets equity rally.
There are 4 factors which should sustain the equity rally.in Malaysia, Singapore and the rest of Asia.  

1. Weak US Dollar. The weak US dollar means lower import prices and   can help balance the Malaysian budget as revenue from oil exports increases.

Those companies with loan exposures to US Dollars benefit with a lower dollar. Already foreign funds are joining the weak US Dollar trend  to take advantage of under priced Malaysian/ Asian   equities and bonds.

2.  Rising commodity prices especially industrial commodities.

Rising commodity prices reflect demand. They reflect building of infrastructure,  rail projects, factories, and airports. 

This is real and the CRB index below is too big to be manipulated.  

The CRB is a basket of 21 major commodities including crude oil, metals and grains. The index presently is showing  robust commodity demand having risen more than 30 % from the low.

3. Rising Emerging market Index
Ending December 2016 for 5 years the emerging market index  (EEM) had a 25 %  loss . In the last year there has been a massive    inflow of investments into emerging markets. 

The losses have been reversed and the EEM has now gone in the money with a 25 % profit.

4. China equities still under represented by portfolio managers

From Gary Dorsch of Global Money Trends

“China makes up more than one-seventh of the global economy, yet its footprint in foreign portfolios is ludicrously small, with overseas investors owning less than 2% of its domestic stocks and bonds. However, as a share of the global economy, China’s clout has only expanded, making the managed yuan an anchor for currencies throughout Asia. 

The nation’s status as both the world’s biggest exporter and the largest market of consumers means policy tweaks in Beijing” can boost growth.” 

This will benefit all Asian stock markets.

Our EWM- the Hong Kong blue chip fund has  risen strongly in the last few months and should continue to progress. Our recently acquired holding, Nidec, the Japanese world leading micro motor maker  is  moving ahead steadily as it taps into the Asia growth trend.

Next week should be positive as the pre election rally continues. There are trading opportunities for nimble, alert traders.

Invest well and grow your wealth
Bill  

I wonder if there is such an indicator for stocks ?

I and Mrs Lee thank  you for your interest in the beautiful, healthy pups. Most have been adopted. There may be 1 or 2 left. Do call Mrs Lee if interested 017 371 2696. Do not hesitate if interested or otherwise the opportunity is gone.

Puppies to adopt

Dear Fellow Investors,   

Further to our Sunday report, now we have 4 puppies left. 3 black and 1 white.  If you are interested to adopt –Please call Mrs Lee at 017 371 2696.

 

Why not a pair as the pups and you will be very happy?

Happy New Year

Bill