The Market Dogs that did not Bark

12 March 2018

Dear Fellow Investors,

There is more upside in global markets according to Citi Bank Research:

As of 18 Feb, Citi Bank monitors 18 factors that provide warning signs before a sustained world market selloff. As of Friday in the US markets there were only 3.5 of the indicators flashing a red signal.  – these were stretched equity valuations, a flattening yield curve, and extreme bullish sentiment by retail investors. 

By comparison, during the great financial crises and dot com bubble 13 of the 18 indicators were flashing red.  Outside the US equity valuations and investor sentiment remain modest. This includes Malaysia, Singapore, and Hong Kong.  

Last week there was a great article in the edge about The Market Dogs that did not Bark by a Russian economist, Anatole Kaletsky.

It was based on a Sherlock Holmes case involving a house robbery. When a suspect was brought to the house the dog did not bark meaning that the dog was familiar with the thief.

 

 

Skaletsky uses the Sherlock  metaphor to describe the 3  dogs in today’s markets. The dogs are the oil dog, the interest rate dog and the currency dog. None of these dogs are barking now, maybe growling. If they do, that is the warning sign.  

Oil is ranging between USD 50 and 60 per barrel, interest rates are  gradually rising but not accelerating while currency rates are stable.  

On Friday 23 March, I will be conducting an in house  Quality Value Investing Course at my office in Phillip Capital. It will be from 9 to 5 30 and carry 10 CPE points for licence renewal.

The focus will be on selecting Quality companies using qualitative analysis.  

We will use the IVSA price and volume filter for timing buys and sells.

This is a great bargain of only RM 192. No one in town will give you this price for a CPE 10 point course with such take away value.

Others charge RM 1000 + for a similar syllabus.

I will send a separate flier with  registration details. Space is limited so please book early if you wish to attend. You can email me and we can arrange to reserve a place for you. 

wermineb@gmail.com

 

Invest well and grow your wealth

Bill

Today’s critter is an Abyssinian cat sent to me by a friend in Canada

“Despite the cold and the snow, there was a cat I hadn't seen before helping him/herself to the free cat food I leave out all the time, now that both of our own cats have passed on.  It wasn't a pure bred Aby, but there was Aby in it, so that's today's 'critter'...the Abyssinian cat. “ .