Zoom Presentation by heads retail research at CIMB

 16 Jan 2021

Dear Fellow Investor,

Today I watched a zoom presentation by  Kong SehSiang who heads retail research at CIMB. His presentation  focused on investment/ trading opportunities and risks which will drive the KLSE for 2021.

Opportunities are in technology, commodity related shares, and Covid recovery linked shares including reits, banking, oil and gas and consumer products.

He recommended Public Bank, Inari and Telecom.

Risks include slow rollout of Covid vaccines, US/China trade issues, sharp inflation risk and shifts of funds out of Asia and back to developed  markets.     

He mentioned foreign fund and institutional money flow into and out of  the KLSE. The big boys are out while retailers are the main participants. The recent strength of the Ringgit   is evidence of money flowing into MGS (Malaysian government bonds) and blue chip shares by foreign funds. The 3 year trend of outflows has stabilized.

I recently sold a large position in Heim and Carlsburg  for a client. Both are relatively illiquid and I told the client it might take a few days to get a good price. I parked  sell orders at the mid point between the bid and offer and surprisingly the orders were taken immediately by a buyer. Heim and Carlsburg are not  retailer shares so I would assume they were bought by a  professional.   They are both breweries and will benefit from the Covid recovery. They are also  value shares trading at  reasonable prices paying a solid 3.9- 4.6 % dividend but are not a crowd favourites.

One of the guests asked how long will the Malaysian technology sector run ? Kong advised to watch the Nasdaq and once the trend turns by breaking the 200 day moving average, that could be the top of the KLSE technology sector.   

I personally watch the CRB index which is a basket of diversified commodities to measure the inflation risk. The CRB is currently in a strong up trend and this will continue to benefit commodity related shares including oil and gas. It also is evidence inflation is picking up .

Kong also mentioned about the 10 year Palm Oil cycle which still has 5 years to run and that would benefit plantation shares long term moving forward.

With the MCO (movement control order) extended more people will stay at home and trade and that will benefit Ace/ 2^nd board shares so for traders there are opportunities for fast money.

Keep Safe
Bill

 

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